[lacnog] IPv6 Transitional Uncertainties

[Fernando Gont]

On 09/14/2011 08:27 AM, Carlos A. Afonso wrote:
>
> Taking some large numbers: Latin America for example, with 100 million
> households, in which all countries' governnments in one way or another
> are promising universal broadband for 2014, 

If "universal broadband" means that every citizen of the country will
have broadband access to the Internet in their homes, then:

1) Could you please provide pointers for these statements?
2) "consider the source" before believing the statements
3) Whoever made this promise probably needs a reality check (* modulo
the above) and/or stop lying to people

(*) Unless governments receive external funding from external
organizations to provide this broadband access, or telcos are willing to
provide it for free, then I'm afraid the governments of many of the
aforementioned countries (at least Argentina) should probably (first, or
instead) promise:
* universal access to a *home*
* universal access to food
* that kids won't need to work to help their families surive
* etc.

(you get the picture)


> both fixed and via mobile,
> starting from a current situation in which this means triplicating, even
> sextuplicating real IP connections. Are you sure that by 2014 we will
> have such a full IPv6 deployment so that in this expansion we can simply
> forget about IPv4 scarcity?

Nobody ever made this statement!



> I see a situation in which every household will probably need two, three
> real IPv4 IPs each (3G/LTE smartphones, ADSL etc) with very little

I'd love to see a world in which every family actually has a household.



> possibility of reuse since most will be permanent connections, unless in
> less than three years IPv6 will be fully deployed throughtout the
> Internet. Brazil and Argentina alone will probably need about 30-40
> million new IPv4 addresses by 2014 

What are the maths for these numbers?

Note: It's clear that one should fail on the safe side, and plan for
IPv6 deployment. However, it's also clear that most big companies have
not been playing on the safe side... so it's probably a matter of policy
(i.e., "you know what? -- You've so far consumed X percent of the
LACNIC's pool and have not bothered to deploy IPv6, even when we have
warned you for the last 10 years... therefore you won't get anymore
addresses past 2012 -- what we have left will be used for new companies
entering the game")

Thanks,
-- 
Fernando Gont
e-mail: fernando en gont.com.ar || fgont en acm.org
PGP Fingerprint: 7809 84F5 322E 45C7 F1C9 3945 96EE A9EF D076 FFF1