[lacnog] Fwd: Re: So Philip Smith / Geoff Huston's CIDR report becomes worth a good hard look today

[Fernando Gont]

FYI


-------- Forwarded Message --------
Subject: Re: So Philip Smith / Geoff Huston's CIDR report becomes worth
a good hard look today
Date: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 09:37:06 +1000
From: Geoff Huston <gih en apnic.net>
To: nanog en nanog.org <nanog en nanog.org>


On 14 Aug 2014, at 4:14 am, Paul Ferguson <fergdawgster en mykolab.com> wrote:

> 
>> On 8/13/14 8:55 AM, Paul Ferguson wrote:
>>> Apologies for replying to my own post, but... below:
>>> 
>>> On 8/13/2014 7:05 AM, Paul Ferguson wrote:
>>> 
>>> 
>>>> p.s. I recall some IPv6 prefix growth routing projections by
>>>> Vince Fuller and Tony Li from several years ago which
>>>> illustrated this, but cannot find a reference at the
>>>> moment....
>> 


I shared some speculation on the next five years of routing table growth
at NANOG 60.

BGP routing table growth has been remarkably stable for many years, and
most of the older predictive exercises have proved to be reasonably
accurate.  with all the usual caveats applying to a post-V4-exhaustion
world having a lot more uncertainties than before the current figures
show that the default free zone in IPv4 will hit 1 million entires in
2019 (http://www.potaroo.net/presentations/2014-02-09-bgp2013.pdf. slide
30).

IPv6 is a much less certain exercise. If we take the most extreme
picture of of the recent past and apply en exponential growth model to
the IPv6 network, then the V6 table gets to 125,000 entries by the same
2019. (slide 34 of the same pack)

Frankly, these figures are not particularly alarming at present. Yes,
we've crossed over some equipment thresholds in the past (TCAM banks of
256K entires, now 512K and at some point its looking possible that we'll
get to 1M entries. If yesterday is a lot like tomorrow then this is some
4 years out for the global routing table if we add the IPv4 and IPv6
tables together.

If I were buying equipment today I'd want a minimum of 2M entries in the
TCAM on the forwarding cards, and I'd also want to understand my options
for field upgrades to at least 4M over the anticipated operational
lifecycle of the equipment. But you may have a different crystal ball of
course.

Geoff






-- 
Fernando Gont
e-mail: fernando en gont.com.ar || fgont en si6networks.com
PGP Fingerprint: 7809 84F5 322E 45C7 F1C9 3945 96EE A9EF D076 FFF1